Scutter
07-09-2004, 09:09 AM
I have been taking a look at the probability of John Kerry being elected President and I have to say that it is looking pretty good at this point. As you know there are 538 Electorial Votes and it takes 270 of those votes to be elected. I started with those states which have a long history of always voting Democratic and there is no credible reason not to belive that those states will continue that decades old trend. Those states are:
Arkansas 6
California 54
District of Columbia 3
Hawaii 4
Maryland 10
Massachusetts 12
Minnesota 10
New Jersey 15
New Mexico 5
New York 33
Oregon 7
Washington 11
Wisconsin 11
Total of for sure votes: 181
Then there are the states that tend to go Democratic more than Republican and which will probably go for Kerry:
Illinois 22
Michigan 18
Pennsylvania 21
The total then is: 242
What this really means if that it will not take wins in many states to put Kerry into the White House. I am thinking that he will probably get Missouri 11, Ohio 23, Tennessee 11, Iowa 7, Delaware 3 and maybe even Florida 25 and or Georgia 13.
Those states total 93 votes and he will need only 28 of those votes to be elected.
It is a ray of hope in a very dismal land at the moment.
Arkansas 6
California 54
District of Columbia 3
Hawaii 4
Maryland 10
Massachusetts 12
Minnesota 10
New Jersey 15
New Mexico 5
New York 33
Oregon 7
Washington 11
Wisconsin 11
Total of for sure votes: 181
Then there are the states that tend to go Democratic more than Republican and which will probably go for Kerry:
Illinois 22
Michigan 18
Pennsylvania 21
The total then is: 242
What this really means if that it will not take wins in many states to put Kerry into the White House. I am thinking that he will probably get Missouri 11, Ohio 23, Tennessee 11, Iowa 7, Delaware 3 and maybe even Florida 25 and or Georgia 13.
Those states total 93 votes and he will need only 28 of those votes to be elected.
It is a ray of hope in a very dismal land at the moment.